UK / EU Talks, UK interest rates, and US coronavirus status

Good Morning,

The UK/EU trade talks continue this week in London after last week’s negotiations were cut short with little progress made.

Both sides have agreed to accelerate talks but the main areas of disagreement: fishing access, the role of the ECJ, and a level playing field remain. A middle-ground will need to be found quickly.

Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey has reportedly written to UK lenders to warn them that taking UK interest rates into negative territory would be a significant operational undertaking that may take up to 12 months for lenders to implement.

Eu Jigsaw
Eu Jigsaw

While the Bank of England previously said that a negative interest rate policy (NIRP) was not currently being considered, it seems that governor Bailey is keeping the option of NIRP open, a policy that would likely weaken Sterling going forward.

Rising numbers of coronavirus cases across the pond continue to threaten America while Mr. Trump has stated that 99% of the US COVID-19 cases are ‘totally harmless’.
The number of infections now regularly tops 50,000 per day, higher than in April when the US was in the first grip of infections.  Some states have delayed and in some cases reversed plans to let shops re-open in a move that is sure to have a ripple effect on the economy as a whole.

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Millbank FX Weekly Updates
6th July 2020